Conferences

“Growth in renewables has been amazing in North-Western Europe and in China, but right now growth is stalling. The same goes for Brazil, they do not expect more renewable investments before 2030,” said Irene Rummelhoff, EVP Marketing, Midstream & Processing at Equinor – and a keynote speaker at The Future of Energy in Arendal this week.

“Due to high penetration of solar and wind, power markets have longer periods with negative prices. When you add inflation and rising costs, renewables look much more complicated and challenging than just a few years ago,” said Rummelhoff.

This is why Equinor has backtracked somewhat on their renewable ambition.

“We have not changed our long-term view about the renewable sector, but the energy transition is taking longer than we anticipated. Some political priorities are slowing down the energy transition, so we have found a more realistic pace,” said Rummelhoff.

Equinor has also reconsidered country risk.

“We used to think about risk in countries like Angola and Brazil, but those risks never materialized. Instead, we have seen Trump stop our offshore wind project in the US, the UK increased taxes, and Norway was just one vote away from stopping the electrification at Hammerfest, a project which was 40 per cent into the investment phase. So, we are rethinking country risk, and seeking to sign more long-term contracts with countries, contracts that cannot be reversed by a new government,” said Rummelhoff.

POWER DEFICIT BY END OF DECADE
Sverre Alvik, Vice president and Energy Transition Director at DNV, took the stage and warned that Norway is heading towards a power deficit at the end of this decade. Or as a minimum, Norway will have a very tight supply and demand balance, according to DNV.

“We expect 5 TWh of new power production in the form of solar, hydropower and maybe a little onshore wind. Only when offshore wind farm Sørlige Nordsjø II enters the market in 2031 or 2032, we will see significant addition to the power system,” said Alvik.

On the consumption side, DNV expects 20 TWh of new consumption in the form of electric vehicle charging, oil and gas electrification, new industry needs, and data centers. According to DNV, there are 58 data centers in Norway, of which 4 are for crypto mining. Today, data centers consume 1.6 TWh, equal to one per cent of Norway’s total consumption. This is expected to grow significantly, but availability is a limiting factor.

“We already say no to new green opportunities since we do not have power or capacity – or we have power and capacity in the wrong places,” said Alvik.

TOUGH DECISIONS AHEAD
How to prioritize a limited supply of energy to a growing demand side, is a huge challenge for Norwegian politicians.

“If we are at a point where we must prioritize, we have already failed or are about to fail. If companies come to Norway and we don’t have the power, we lose jobs and investments. We need to do more of everything,” said Lene Westgaard-Halle (Conservative Party), Member of the Standing Committee on Business and Industry at the Norwegian Parliament.

Astrid Bergmål (Labour Party), State Secretary at Norwegian Ministry of Energy, agreed that discussing which industries should be prioritized, is difficult.

“It is a scary debate. We should try to avoid that by producing more power,” said Bergmål.

Anders Hannevik, Senior Vice President, Strategic Business Development at Aker Solutions urged all parties to find a common way forward.

“Norway should have an energy policy that is stable and supported by a broad base of political parties,” said Hannevik.

The Minister was a keynote speaker at Global Outlook, a flagship event during Arendalsuka, which brings world issues to the stage. The 2025 edition was titled “New realities for Europe”.

“The world order is in trouble. A new world order is serious news for Europa – also for the rest of the world, but Europa will be more affected since we were reaping the benefits of the world order more than others. Now, the system is seriously challenged,” said Barth Eide.

He listed tariff barriers and a fixation of trade balance, which comes on top of other geopolitical events: A war in Europe, Chinese dominance, and a Trump administration which is much more self-oriented.

How should Europe respond?

“The answer is more Europe, a stronger Europe! This is a wake-up call. We understand that we left too much to the US, we left too much of the defense commitment to the US, and we became too comfortable in believing this system would last eternally. Now we need to strengthen European cooperation and competitiveness,” said Barth Eide.

He also called for Europe to do more on the global arena.

“If the US does less, others must do more. If we still want a rule-based order – that believes that cooperation is better than conflict, that fostering trade is more than transactional day-to-day relations, that protection of human rights and the rule of law is important – we need to do more. All of this will rest more on Europe,” said Barth Eide.

“Still, we want to keep the Atlantic as narrow as possible, meaning that we want to work together with the US administration as much as we can, but we realize it will not be the way is used to be. And things will not change back a few years down the road,” said the Minister.

German historian and author Philipp Blom also addressed the breakdown of the current world order.

“Lots of people have abandoned democracy. It’s not their preferred way of being governed. After the seeming victory of liberalism in 1989, people are disappointed,” said Blom.

He went on to ask if Europe can rise to ensure its vision of human rights, solidarity and political participation? Or if we all have become too fat and lazy to do anything about it?

Blom offered a hopeful answer:

“We tend to forget that we are all the children or grandchildren of generations who accomplished the impossible for their own time and their own society after the second world war. We will simply have to accomplish the impossible again. It is time to get off our behinds and do something,” said Blom.

This was echoed by Colombe Cahen-Salvador, Co-Founder of Atlas and candidate for United Nations Secretary-General. She called for more people to engage in societal matters.

“Hope for Europe lies in action. Don’t go home and watch Netflix! Engage – and things will happen,” said Cahen-Salvador.