“The offshore wind market is more promising and positive than the offshore wind news flow,” said Markus Nævestad, Partner at Rystad Energy, during the opening session of the North Sea Wind Conference in Kristiansand.
He admitted that the offshore wind market has faced headwind. Cost and interest rates put downwards pressure on profitability. Tenders fail and regulatory conditions are challenging.
“In sum, there is a negative sentiment for offshore wind. Major developers are pivoting to a more selective, value-driven approach – trimming capex and targeting more stable markets,” said Nævestad.
As a result, Rystad Energy has revised its capacity outlook for Europe, Asia, and especially for North America.
“We have, however, a positive outlook for the next decade. The number of auctions opened last year was record-high, and there are already more sanctioned projects in 2025 than in the whole of 2024,” explained Nævestad.
“Globally, 156 GW has been awarded but not sanctioned. A lot will not reach a final investment decision, but a lot will. So, there will be a large portfolio of projects for the supply chain to go for,” said Nævestad.
Rystad Energy projects an annual growth rate of 20 per cent till 2030, and 18 per cent per year for the following five years.
“The offshore wind industry still faces – and needs to tackle – challenges connected to regulatory frameworks, supply chain capacity, and the sustainability of the supply chain,” Nævestad concluded.
